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Reserve Bank of AustraliaSpeechEN

Fireside Chat at Conexus 2025 Superannuation Chair Forum

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PUBLISHED30/01/2025, 00:30:00
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Firside Chat

Notes

  1. Fireside Chat at Conexus 2025 Superannuation Chair Forum Brad Jones Assistant Governor (Financial System) Conexus 2025 Superannuation Chair Forum Sorrento – 30 January 2025 Audio 36.3MB Transcript Moderator And we move now to have, for the very first time, the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Brad Jones, thank
  2. you for being here. Now, I must say we’ve learnt there are some institutional trappings involved
  3. in having the RBA at this event. We have some cameras up the back, which I understand are for the
  4. purposes of your own self-assessment, or the Bank’s. We have Bloomberg News in the room, as
  5. discussed at the outset. So, clearly, there’s a chance that the things you can say can move
  6. markets, and so on. So perhaps we should start there with the very big picture. If you could give an
  7. update, please, to the room what are the risks, as the RBA sees it, to financial stability and the
  8. outlook for shocks, to the extent they exist? Brad Jones Thanks, name redacted , and fantastic to be here. Let me answer that by giving a sense of
  9. the sort of framework we’re using to think about this issue. Thinking about risks in two
  10. different ways, there’s one group of risks that we think of as being fairly standard, cyclical
  11. business cycle risks that are generated from within the financial system. They’re the sorts of
  12. risks that we’ve observed, basically, since the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system, the
  13. last 50 years. We’ve got pretty well developed playbooks for monitoring and responding to
  14. those types of risks. Then there’s a second class of risk, which is newer, more structural
  15. rather than cyclical, and bearing down on us from outside the system, not being generated from within
  16. the financial system, and for which there’s not very well developed playbooks. So there’s
  17. sort of two very different parts of threats. On the first, we’ve done a lot of work examining
  18. the health of borrowers and the health of lenders, and trying to trace through the ability of
  19. borrowers to withstand different economic conditions and what the implications of different scenarios
  20. would also be for lenders. And our really quite consistent assessment during this period of policy
  21. tightening has been that, on the main, Australian households and businesses have been resilient.
  22. Resilient in the sense of being in a position to repay their debt obligations on time. That is not to
  23. say that households and businesses, that are a decent cohort, have not diminished the fact that a
  24. cohort of those firms and households have been experiencing stress. We’ve seen that play out in
  25. a macroeconomic context, in the form of lower consumption, business insolvencies rising, calls to
  26. help lines, for instance. So there’s absolutely been stress. We just haven’t seen that
  27. metastasise into a big rise in non-performing loans, for instance. On that second category of risks, the assessment is, frankly, a little bit more
  28. problematic. So these are non-traditional risks that are coming at us from outside the system. What
  29. I’m speaking about there, in particular, through -- one is geopolitical risk, second is operational
  30. risk, and a third is risks around climate change. On the geopolitical risk side, the framework we’re
  31. bringing to bear here is to think about this issue along a continuum, a spectrum of risks. Not just
  32. anchoring to one particular scenario, but in fact a range of possible scenarios. We’re now working
  33. with systemically important institutions in the country to ensure that they are robust to a range of
  34. potential geopolitical scenarios. On the operational risk side, our colleagues, APRA, have been leaning into this space in
  35. a pretty concerted way. The CPS 230, APRA and the Bank are also working together very closely on issues
  36. like how to build resilience in our payment systems. That’s been a key priority. On the climate side, there’s been a whole range of initiatives, again, across all of
  37. the Council of Financial Regulator agencies to try and get our arms around that one. The stress testing,
  38. disclosures, standards and so on. So, pulling all that back, two very different types of risks required
  39. two very different sorts of responses from policymakers. The final point I would just make is that trying to predict when the next shock will hit
  40. and what it will look like is incredibly difficult. So, a lot of our time is also spent focusing more on
  41. the resilience piece. That is, focus a little bit less on the prediction business, a little bit more on
  42. tracing through how robust are our institutions, and can they withstand a range of shocks? That’s
  43. where a lot of our focus is on. Moderator Well, certainly there’s some lived experience in the room of active management and trying to
  44. predict where the market will go. So, that will resonate. If we could just stick with the
  45. geopolitical risk for a moment and, Brad, you described that as a new-ish or an emerging structural
  46. risk. But of course, you know, geopolitics has been with us since we’ve been mobile, right, the
  47. middle ages, and we’ve had to contend with those sorts of risks. Why is this a growing focus as
  48. a central bank? Why is this sort of external or geopolitical risk having a growing influence on the
  49. financial system? Brad Jones So, I’d say the last 80 years have been a historical anomaly, which I think is the point
  50. you’re trying to make. It is the period, though, over which people in this room and, in fact,
  51. basically the entire financial system, have tended to -- well, we’ve all been educated over that
  52. period. Risk management capabilities have been developed over this long period -- unusually long
  53. period of peace. So, in some sense it is a reversion to a more contested world, a type of world that,
  54. in fact, prevailed for many centuries. It’s just our systems and our processes have not been
  55. developed in a way that has necessarily taken into account international political economy risk.
  56. It’s just not featured prominently at all, certainly for most of the last 30 decades. I
  57. should acknowledge, though, just in the last couple of years, that’s starting to shift, and
  58. we’re now finding much more engagement when we’re speaking to institutions about this
  59. issue. Financial institutions are leaning into this in a way that, perhaps, they didn’t.
  60. They’re bringing expertise from that domain into their own operations. So, there’s been
  61. some progress, but there’s some ways to go, I think, before large institutions would feel
  62. entirely comfortable that they’ve been able to develop the right sort of framework to navigate
  63. this sort of an issue. Moderator So, all three of those, to some extent, speak to a more active role for government, I guess, both in
  64. democratic countries and non-democratic countries. If you look at the commentary coming out of Davos
  65. last week, you would think that, you know, the appointment of Donald Trump, the election of Donald
  66. Trump was the most momentous thing to happen to financial markets in a very, very long time. Does the
  67. bank have a view about that? Is that really in the realm of normal share market volatility and
  68. political and media noise, or does the bank have a view about the extent to which what’s
  69. happening in America could be a financial system change? Brad Jones There’s a lot of imponderables in that question, I think. We don’t spend a lot of time
  70. trying to second-guess what a particular administration is going to do. In part because what matters
  71. is not just what any particular government in any part of the world is going to announce, but what
  72. the second and third order responses were going to be. So, for instance, one country might decide to
  73. impose tariffs. What really matters for the global financial system then is how do other countries
  74. respond to that. So, the second, third order effects are very difficult to trace through. So, we
  75. don’t waste too much time on that. I mean, we’re alert to it. We’re obviously
  76. following events closely. We speak to our international counterparts very frequently, but we’re
  77. not second-guessing. Moderator Okay. So let’s come to the superannuation. Obviously, the central bank is not a corporate or a
  78. prudential regulator. You have made some public comments, picked up very strongly by the financial
  79. press and, of course, noted by the people in this room, around super more recently. Perhaps it would
  80. be worthwhile to just clarify the extent to which the bank is monitoring super, or what you see as
  81. your role, really, as it pertains to super? Brad Jones The industry, as has been noted in the earlier panels, it’s grown tremendously, and it’s at
  82. 150% of GDP. It would really be, the way we think about it, a dereliction of our duty to not be
  83. engaging with the industry. So, in the last couple of years, in particular, we’ve stepped that
  84. up. There’s been a bilateral element to that. A number of bank executives have engaged with a
  85. number of folks in this room, and there is also the ASFA that’s reached out to us and is now
  86. helping to establish, at different levels of our organisation, frequent touch-points. So that
  87. engagement is building. The way that we’re thinking about super and the way that we’ve written about it
  88. recently is to really make two key points. The first point is that there are important structural
  89. features of our industry which distinguish it from some of those internationally. Conceptually, that
  90. should mean that this industry is very well placed to act as a counter-cyclical stabilising force in our
  91. financial system: long investment horizons; the fact that member returns are not guaranteed; the lack of leverage; the
  92. lack of run risk. That’s the conceptual sort of underpinnings for that assessment. But because of the growth in the industry, in particular over the last 15 years, it
  93. would be imprudent to just assume that will always be the case. So we’ve commenced a program of work
  94. -- and we’re working closely with our fellow regulators here -- to think through different scenarios
  95. where you could potentially have a multitude of shocks come together and trace through what would this
  96. mean for the system at large. If I can give you one tangible data point around how things have changed, at the time of
  97. the global financial crisis, super funds collectively owned about 5% of short-term bank debt in the
  98. country. Today, that figure stands at somewhere between 35 and 45%. So I think this room is quite
  99. justified in pointing to the counter-cyclical role played in the GFC, right, that’s empirical fact. But again, it would be imprudent for us just to assume that things will play out in the
  100. next shock, whenever it may occur, in precisely the same way, because there have been key changes in the
  101. industry and there’s a larger degree of interconnectedness in the system because of the growth in
  102. the industry. That means that the systemic implications could be larger than they were certainly
  103. 10 or 15 years ago. So, that’s what’s sitting behind some of the analytical work
  104. we’re now doing. A lot of our analytical work, I should say, is very focused on the role of a systemic
  105. liquidity shock. That was so generated from outside the system where super funds inadvertently became a
  106. propagator of that stress. I think David used that terminology earlier. That resonates with us, because
  107. the framework that we’re bringing to bear here is not that super will be the originator of a shock
  108. to the financial system, but rather, there’s a shock imposed on the financial system. How could --
  109. think through -- how could funds inadvertently propagate stress through the system? And that could be
  110. through a combination of you have some large market shock, which undermines confidence writ large. You
  111. also have a change in policy settings, unexpected change in policy settings, which means the system is no
  112. longer closed in the way that it has been for almost its entire existence. And then maybe there’s
  113. some big cyber attack. So you have multiple shocks coming together. How would that trace through, given
  114. that the interconnectedness in the system is much higher than it was 15 years ago during the global
  115. financial crisis? So that’s where some of our analytical work is focused. Moderator You mentioned some of the plausible scenarios there, cyber risk, for example. Is one of those that
  116. you are looking at, scenario modelling, around the growing preponderance of private credit assets?
  117. This is one that the IMF and others have pointed to. Perhaps there’s some bubble-like activity
  118. starting to emerge. Is that one of the scenarios that superannuation maybe a propagator of, or
  119. perhaps pension funds more globally? Brad Jones We have long focused -- had a program of monitoring non-bank lending behaviour in Australia. Non-bank
  120. lenders in Australia account for about 10% of business lending and about 5% of mortgage lending. That
  121. share has ebbed and flowed a bit. In the business side it’s certainly increased a few percentage
  122. points. It’s not yet of a scale -- in the numbers that we have, it’s not yet on a scale
  123. that would suggest to us that there’s systemic implications. What is happening instead is that our colleagues at ASIC and APRA are very focused on
  124. issues like transparency and valuation of assets and investor protection. That’s where the
  125. regulatory focus has been, I think quite rightly, up to now. Now, if this space continues to grow, you
  126. can bet your bottom dollar we will be running the rule over it. Right now, the way that the regulators
  127. are thinking about this is this is principally an investor protection issue. But if it continues to grow,
  128. the interconnections between that part of the financial system and other parts of the financial system
  129. continue to grow, then we will be leaning in. Moderator And worth noting, of course, that some funds are, indeed, direct lenders in these arrangements in
  130. increasing cases. The other one that has received quite a lot of attention from the RBA’s
  131. comments is around bank ownership or, indeed, the role of super as a funder of or provider of
  132. services to the banking system. We’ve heard a little bit of that through this morning’s
  133. commentary. Is there anything you’d want to say about clarifying any areas of concern you have
  134. there, or the extent to which the RBA is looking at this? Brad Jones Only really to repeat that this point around growing interconnectedness in the system between the
  135. super funds and the banks. We’ve seen it play out most evidently in a super fund holdings of
  136. bank debt, where we think those holdings are largely being used in the liquidity pools of super
  137. funds. So, I know APRA are looking closely at this. In our discussions with folks in the industry,
  138. it’s making sure that people really understand the liquidity properties of those securities. We
  139. saw, for instance, at the start of the pandemic there was a big increase in sales of bank debt
  140. securities being put, basically, back to the banks. We hadn’t really observed that before.
  141. That’s the sort of -- when I talk about interconnectedness and how stress could propagate, given
  142. that bank bills, the BBSW rate is a key benchmark on which a lot of other assets are priced in
  143. Australia. It’s a key reference rate. They’re the sort of interconnections that have our
  144. attention and that we’re doing work on. It’s more through that wholesale funding market
  145. lens than others. Moderator So, less around the equity ownership, for example -- Brad Jones Yes. Moderator -- which seems to have captured the conversation a little. Another one raised in that body of work
  146. that the bank did was around herding and benchmarking in the behaviour of funds in their investment
  147. markets. Now, to advocate, I suppose, for the funds in the room, some of that, largely, of course, is
  148. the result of financial regulation, and specifically the Your Future, Your Super regime introduced by
  149. the previous government which, arguably, encourages some of that herding behaviour. Putting that to
  150. one side, why is the herding behaviour potentially problematic? Brad Jones Well, everyone standing on the same side of the boat is not great. To be a bit flippant about it, I
  151. don’t want to get into a commentary on the role of -- on the validity of those benchmarks or
  152. not. I know that they’re periodically reviewed. But synchronised shocks, synchronised behaviour
  153. -- and it doesn’t matter what part of the investor ecosystem that behaviour is coming from -- if
  154. everyone’s trying to act in a similar way at the same time, that’s generally when you get
  155. market discontinuities. Moderator Yes, and perhaps not as periodically as some in the room would like. But I guess beyond super, this
  156. concept of herding is obviously a major trend influence in financial markets globally over the last
  157. few years. If you look at the rise of passive investment which, on the one hand, has arguably moved
  158. money from Wall Street to Main Street, to some extent, but also there’s, perhaps, more herding
  159. activity going on. At a financial system level, separate to what super funds might be doing, is that
  160. something that central banks are really looking at; the rise of ETFs and the fact that there’s
  161. less price discovery, for example? Brad Jones I would say that, internationally, central banks are always thinking about how could we get really
  162. disruptive events in our financial system? I think that’s really the concept that animates a lot
  163. of research. The issue that you’re speaking to is one of the items on a long list of things that
  164. central banks worry about. I wouldn’t say it’s at the top of the list. Moderator We specifically in the last session, Brad, had a diversity of funds in terms of their size, some of
  165. the largest megafunds in the system, and also the number of the smaller funds that remain. Does the
  166. RBA have a view at all about concentration of retirement savings among a small number of sort of an
  167. oligopoly style model, as we have with retail banking, versus a diversity of players from a financial
  168. system and health point of view? Does that dynamic matter? Brad Jones Just for the avoidance of doubt, we don’t sit around at the bank pontificating about what the
  169. right number of super funds should be. That’s not what we do. At a conceptual level, the
  170. challenge here is how do we develop or operate a system? How does a system operate where you get the
  171. benefits that can accrue from having high levels of sophistication rigor, at the same time not have
  172. two or three or four institutions completely dominate. Now, to provide the appropriate perspective, the levels of concentration in the super
  173. fund industry are far lower than in other parts of the financial system and other parts of the Australian
  174. economy. If you look at the big banks, for instance, their share of credit is somewhere between
  175. 70 and 75 percent. I think the big four super funds by assets maybe represent something in the
  176. order of 25 percent. So, to the extent there is industry concentration, it’s not as pronounced, I would
  177. assert, in this industry compared to other parts of the financial system and other sectors of the economy
  178. more generally. Moderator Another area where certainly the exposure is less pronounced, at least in the Australian system, is
  179. the exposure of super funds to digital assets and crypto assets is relatively tiny. In fact, I think
  180. there’s only one fund in the room who has at least a public disclosure to that asset class. But
  181. I know that the RBA has had a bit to say about this in different realms. Governor Michelle Bullock
  182. has been, let’s say, relatively skeptical, I think it fair to say, about the idea of
  183. cryptocurrency, as both a currency and as a potential asset class. That’s how I would have read
  184. her comments. But I know you’ve been doing some work, both inside the RBA and with some other
  185. global organisations, on this growth of digital assets, which we’re now seeing very much back in the
  186. mainstream conversation through the US election, and so on. Can you give us a sense to which the bank, or yourself personally, are watching
  187. this, and the extent to which investors in the room should be really watching closely what’s
  188. happening in this emerging space? Brad Jones The future of money is one of the five strategic priorities for the bank. So, this is absolutely an
  189. area that we’re very focused on. What I can say clearly here is that we do not see a compelling
  190. use case for unbacked crypto. We do make a big distinction between unbacked crypto and the potential
  191. for digital assets, tokenised assets, to quite profoundly transform the nature of our financial
  192. markets. As an adjunct to that, we’re thinking very hard about what forms of money, new forms of
  193. money, digital money, might be needed to act as the settlement agent in these transactions in digital
  194. assets. That is why we’re interested in central bank digital currencies, essentially. Now, to be clear, we’ve yet to -- we at the bank and the payment system board --
  195. have yet to see a compelling public policy case emerge in favour of a retail central bank digital
  196. currency. The benefits aren’t obvious to us. We can certainly see scope for massive disruption in
  197. the financial sector, potentially. So, we haven’t seen the risk reward trade-off from a public
  198. policy perspective in the case of retail, CBDC, emerge yet. I would say most central banks are coming to
  199. that view. There’s a couple that are still moving in that direction, but they’re in a minority
  200. at the moment. Where most of the interest internationally, and certainly at the RBA, is in this space is
  201. thinking about the role that a wholesale central bank digital currency could play in acting as the
  202. settlement agent for transactions in digital assets and tokenised assets. That’s really where most
  203. of our attention is. Moderator What problem does that solve, potentially? Brad Jones Yes. So you can think about the evolution of financial markets since World War II as having had --
  204. have been a couple of epochs. One was the paper-based system, the next was electronification. And the
  205. third, potentially, is this era of tokenisation. The reason that central banks are looking at this,
  206. and industry is looking at this, is there’s a few potential benefits. Now, all of these come
  207. with some hair over them. So, there’s no settled view internationally or at the bank that this
  208. will happen or that this is inevitable at all. But the types of benefits, potentially, that could accrue from, say, atomic settlement,
  209. which is where you have the digital asset and the former digital money on the same exchange, basically
  210. exchanging instantaneously, is the rule of T+2 collapses to T+0. So you remove counterparty risk.
  211. You remove the issue of having to tie up your collateral for 48 hours waiting for your transaction
  212. to settle. Tokens also hold out the promise of being able to be updated from an information
  213. perspective in real time. For instance, one of the use cases for the issuance of, say, green bonds is
  214. that the token could be getting live feeds on clean energy production, and coupon payments could be made
  215. on the basis of that real-time information coming in. So collateral, freeing up collateral, reducing
  216. counterparty risk. Also cutting through layers of intermediary costs, because you’ll basically be
  217. cutting the middleman out of transactions. So, there’s some transactions, for instance, in the
  218. securitisation market that involve 12 intermediaries. Everyone’s taking their cut along the
  219. way. So, tokenisation could potentially cut through some of those layers. Then there’s the argument that it could help facilitate 24/7 trading on DLT, for instance, and the fractionalisation of assets;
  220. chopping assets into smaller pieces could help improve liquidity. They’re all the arguments for why
  221. you might want to look at this and do some work in this area. They’re some of the reasons why we
  222. are, but I should underscore that there are some issues with digital assets, so we’re taking a
  223. pretty sober perspective as we’re running the ruler over this. Moderator Yes. Those are self-evident, right? We’ve seen many, many investors around the world, tens of
  224. thousands of them in Australia alone, lose money in the collapse of FTX, and certainly there’s
  225. issues around the regulation, or lack thereof. Nonetheless, it sounds as though you, the bank,
  226. believes, and perhaps other global peers, that there is some utility in the blockchain itself? Brad Jones Yes. The underlying technology is interesting to us. I think certainly much more so than the unbacked
  227. crypto space, which is the piece that gets a lot of the media attention. Moderator Okay. We’re going to open to questions from the floor now, so please be forthcoming. And also,
  228. if you wish to share any lived experience of conversations your boards have had around these issues,
  229. please feel free. A question or a comment from Table 2. If we could get him a microphone, and
  230. please give your name and organisation. Just press the button. Questioner Name redacted . Brad, thanks, indeed. A really wonderful presentation. On this issue of
  231. super funds holding 40% of short-term bank securities, and the difficulty this might lead to in a
  232. liquidity crisis, or let’s say a circumstance where members wanted cash, or given the
  233. opportunity to take their assets as cash, as they were during the GFC, to a limited extent, can this
  234. not be regarded, actually, as quite a good facility? That is, in a liquidity crisis, if super funds
  235. are compelled to redeem bank securities, this becomes, basically, passing on a liquidity issue to
  236. banks, and behind the banks is the RBA. In other words, it’s a mechanism for transferring
  237. liquidity crisis solution back to the RBA, which is where it should be. That is, it’s not an
  238. insolvency crisis, it’s just a liquidity crisis -- it’s what central banks are good at
  239. dealing with -- and you have a mechanism there to engage you in it more properly than you might
  240. otherwise? Brad Jones I think it would be very difficult for any central bank to advocate for investors taking risks in a
  241. way that would mean that if there’s a big shock, the central bank will be there to bail them
  242. out. I think what we would prefer, and certainly what APRA would prefer, is that institutions are
  243. building their liquidity risk management capabilities in a very deliberative and careful way, so that
  244. they can accommodate a range of potential shocks that also take into account the possibility that
  245. some of their peers might act in a similar way. So, prevention rather than cure is where we would
  246. advocate attention being focused. It’s also the thing that you can control as an industry. So, not putting yourself in
  247. a position where you have to rely on the presumption that someone else will bail you out of your
  248. position, would be our advice there. And to be fair, since the pandemic, we have observed the super fund
  249. industry making -- certainly parts of the industry -- making efforts to increase the sophistication of
  250. their liquidity risk management practices. APRA has also acknowledged that, at the same time acknowledged
  251. that that progress has been very uneven, and that we’d like to both raise the average level of
  252. sophistication and robustness around liquidity management and shrink the gap between the best and worst
  253. experience, because I think one thing that we’ve picked up from our liaison is that there’s
  254. some institutions are now doing this very well, and there’s others where maybe their practices are
  255. still a fair way short of where they should be from a prudence perspective. So, prevention trumps cure. Moderator Certainly an important message there. We’ve got another question from Table 2 and then a
  256. few more around the room. Questioner Hi, Brad. name redacted . A really interesting piece of work was done by the BIS about
  257. three months ago where they tried to grasp trading relative to geopolitical risk. You may have seen
  258. the work. I asked your Deputy Governor about it at the IMF meetings we had and subsequently used in
  259. the presentation in November to discuss it. The bank seemed pretty careful about it, but Australia
  260. really is an extreme outlier; ie, on that measure of the BIS, we have very high exposure to
  261. geopolitical risk relative to our trading position. The bank itself also has a very low level of FX
  262. reserves, you know, one times inputs. It always has done it that way. We obviously have to manage our FX volatility. It’s a very important part of the way
  263. the industry works, particularly as the industry gets bigger and invests more offshore, holds unlisteds.
  264. You didn’t mention FX. How are you thinking about that? Brad Jones Yes. Great question. It’s featured in some of our research publicly, and it’s also an
  265. active area of work for us. Again, a part of that really reflects that the size of the super fund FX
  266. hedging book stands at about 400 billion in the swap market. The FX market is a core market for
  267. central bank operations, which is another reason why we’re doing work in this area, and
  268. we’ve spoken with a number of super funds about their FX hedging practices; how are you
  269. managing. The margin core risk that comes with FX hedging, because of the growth in offshore assets
  270. and the fact that around 40%-ish of those asset holdings are currently hedged, those trends are
  271. likely to continue to mean that the activity from this community in the FX swap market is going to
  272. grow. So, we’re looking at it, actually, through a couple of perspectives. One is the potential
  273. for very large moves in foreign exchange markets to accompany these other market stress events and
  274. accelerate or perpetuate the call on liquidity in a stress event. So, that’s one angle. Then
  275. there’s also the other element of just outside of stress events, the fact that this community
  276. here will become, almost certainly, a larger and larger player in the FX swap market. What
  277. implications does that have for market functioning and fundamental supply and demand imbalances in
  278. the normal course of events? Right now, our assessment is that flows through the swap market are fairly well balanced
  279. between what this community is doing and what other parts of the financial system are doing. That may not
  280. necessarily be the case in perpetuity, and so that’s another area where we are doing a lot of work
  281. in this space. Moderator It’s worth noting as well that names redacted spent quite a bit of time in the
  282. report in front of you dealing with this issue of FX risk. There is a question from Questioner now on
  283. Table 6. Questioner Brad, just to add to that discussion on FX, one thing we found really interesting is in that downward
  284. market environment, with funds allocating more offshore so they run a hedge book for currency, if
  285. there is a market shock and the Australian dollar falls with markets, funds actually find themselves
  286. overhedged, so they’re actually selling AUD into a market where AUD is falling. And we have
  287. estimated that that could add 5% to flows in a difficult market environment, and it’s
  288. interesting. Is that a number that sort of raises your eyebrows, or it’s nothing too significant
  289. to worry about? It’s quite interesting. Brad Jones I haven’t seen those numbers, so I’d have to pull them apart to be able to respond to that.
  290. But what I can say is there’s two ways to think about this issue. One is the initial magnitude
  291. of a decline which brings the margin call piece into play, but then there’s the length of the
  292. decline. What we know from speaking to super funds is, particularly in recent years we’ve seen
  293. greater use of, say, laddering in the hedging strategies. So, not the entire hedge book is rolling
  294. every month; it’s being staggered. So that, in theory, offers some protection or some sort of
  295. mitigation against the most extreme effects of margin calls. But the longer that decline is sustained, obviously the larger the decline, the longer
  296. it’s sustained for, the larger the cash flow implications. Moderator You mentioned right at the outset there are some ways in which our pension system markedly differs
  297. from others. One of those, of course, is the sort of default compulsory nature of contributions. Some
  298. critics would say that that has led to a complacency, or perhaps an under-estimation of the need to
  299. have liquidity on hand. And we saw a little of this, right, during the pandemic with the early
  300. release scheme, albeit relatively a small amount of funds actually withdrawn then. We are now heading into an election cycle where there are, potentially, more use cases
  301. for withdrawal in Australia for the purposes of purchasing homes, and so on. So, as this conversation
  302. increases, do you think the super industry should be more prepared for people to be switching, for people
  303. to be withdrawing their funds? Brad Jones Certainly our colleagues at APRA are engaging very closely with the industry, as I said, to make sure
  304. that across the industry that there’s less unevenness. There’s a high average level of
  305. capability here on liquidity risk management, and it’s more even. The pandemic was, I think, a big shot across the bow. The early release scheme I think
  306. caught a number of institutions off guard, and in a number of conversations we’ve had with the
  307. industry, the sense we’ve got is it could have been worse. The withdrawals -- there were certainly
  308. states of the world where the withdrawals could have been larger than what they actually were. And if
  309. those worst case scenarios had played out, the events could have been a bit more problematic for super
  310. funds. There’s been, I think, a lot of learning and reflection on that period and an increase in
  311. capability. And you see that now in the types of people who run higher into running liquidity risk
  312. management operations at super funds which we think, all else equal, is a good thing. So, there’s
  313. definitely been an uplift. It’s on the radar not just of the investment teams, but boards, which we
  314. think is great. But there’s a maturation that needs to happen there. Alex Well, certainly I think I speak for the room when I say the industry would welcome engagement with
  315. the Reserve Bank, and we certainly do at this forum. So we hope that it be a long-term thing.
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