Firside Chat
Notes
- Fireside Chat at Conexus 2025 Superannuation Chair Forum Brad Jones Assistant Governor (Financial System) Conexus 2025 Superannuation Chair Forum Sorrento – 30 January 2025 Audio 36.3MB Transcript Moderator And we move now to have, for the very first time, the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr Brad Jones, thank
- you for being here. Now, I must say we’ve learnt there are some institutional trappings involved
- in having the RBA at this event. We have some cameras up the back, which I understand are for the
- purposes of your own self-assessment, or the Bank’s. We have Bloomberg News in the room, as
- discussed at the outset. So, clearly, there’s a chance that the things you can say can move
- markets, and so on. So perhaps we should start there with the very big picture. If you could give an
- update, please, to the room what are the risks, as the RBA sees it, to financial stability and the
- outlook for shocks, to the extent they exist? Brad Jones Thanks, name redacted , and fantastic to be here. Let me answer that by giving a sense of
- the sort of framework we’re using to think about this issue. Thinking about risks in two
- different ways, there’s one group of risks that we think of as being fairly standard, cyclical
- business cycle risks that are generated from within the financial system. They’re the sorts of
- risks that we’ve observed, basically, since the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system, the
- last 50 years. We’ve got pretty well developed playbooks for monitoring and responding to
- those types of risks. Then there’s a second class of risk, which is newer, more structural
- rather than cyclical, and bearing down on us from outside the system, not being generated from within
- the financial system, and for which there’s not very well developed playbooks. So there’s
- sort of two very different parts of threats. On the first, we’ve done a lot of work examining
- the health of borrowers and the health of lenders, and trying to trace through the ability of
- borrowers to withstand different economic conditions and what the implications of different scenarios
- would also be for lenders. And our really quite consistent assessment during this period of policy
- tightening has been that, on the main, Australian households and businesses have been resilient.
- Resilient in the sense of being in a position to repay their debt obligations on time. That is not to
- say that households and businesses, that are a decent cohort, have not diminished the fact that a
- cohort of those firms and households have been experiencing stress. We’ve seen that play out in
- a macroeconomic context, in the form of lower consumption, business insolvencies rising, calls to
- help lines, for instance. So there’s absolutely been stress. We just haven’t seen that
- metastasise into a big rise in non-performing loans, for instance. On that second category of risks, the assessment is, frankly, a little bit more
- problematic. So these are non-traditional risks that are coming at us from outside the system. What
- I’m speaking about there, in particular, through -- one is geopolitical risk, second is operational
- risk, and a third is risks around climate change. On the geopolitical risk side, the framework we’re
- bringing to bear here is to think about this issue along a continuum, a spectrum of risks. Not just
- anchoring to one particular scenario, but in fact a range of possible scenarios. We’re now working
- with systemically important institutions in the country to ensure that they are robust to a range of
- potential geopolitical scenarios. On the operational risk side, our colleagues, APRA, have been leaning into this space in
- a pretty concerted way. The CPS 230, APRA and the Bank are also working together very closely on issues
- like how to build resilience in our payment systems. That’s been a key priority. On the climate side, there’s been a whole range of initiatives, again, across all of
- the Council of Financial Regulator agencies to try and get our arms around that one. The stress testing,
- disclosures, standards and so on. So, pulling all that back, two very different types of risks required
- two very different sorts of responses from policymakers. The final point I would just make is that trying to predict when the next shock will hit
- and what it will look like is incredibly difficult. So, a lot of our time is also spent focusing more on
- the resilience piece. That is, focus a little bit less on the prediction business, a little bit more on
- tracing through how robust are our institutions, and can they withstand a range of shocks? That’s
- where a lot of our focus is on. Moderator Well, certainly there’s some lived experience in the room of active management and trying to
- predict where the market will go. So, that will resonate. If we could just stick with the
- geopolitical risk for a moment and, Brad, you described that as a new-ish or an emerging structural
- risk. But of course, you know, geopolitics has been with us since we’ve been mobile, right, the
- middle ages, and we’ve had to contend with those sorts of risks. Why is this a growing focus as
- a central bank? Why is this sort of external or geopolitical risk having a growing influence on the
- financial system? Brad Jones So, I’d say the last 80 years have been a historical anomaly, which I think is the point
- you’re trying to make. It is the period, though, over which people in this room and, in fact,
- basically the entire financial system, have tended to -- well, we’ve all been educated over that
- period. Risk management capabilities have been developed over this long period -- unusually long
- period of peace. So, in some sense it is a reversion to a more contested world, a type of world that,
- in fact, prevailed for many centuries. It’s just our systems and our processes have not been
- developed in a way that has necessarily taken into account international political economy risk.
- It’s just not featured prominently at all, certainly for most of the last 30 decades. I
- should acknowledge, though, just in the last couple of years, that’s starting to shift, and
- we’re now finding much more engagement when we’re speaking to institutions about this
- issue. Financial institutions are leaning into this in a way that, perhaps, they didn’t.
- They’re bringing expertise from that domain into their own operations. So, there’s been
- some progress, but there’s some ways to go, I think, before large institutions would feel
- entirely comfortable that they’ve been able to develop the right sort of framework to navigate
- this sort of an issue. Moderator So, all three of those, to some extent, speak to a more active role for government, I guess, both in
- democratic countries and non-democratic countries. If you look at the commentary coming out of Davos
- last week, you would think that, you know, the appointment of Donald Trump, the election of Donald
- Trump was the most momentous thing to happen to financial markets in a very, very long time. Does the
- bank have a view about that? Is that really in the realm of normal share market volatility and
- political and media noise, or does the bank have a view about the extent to which what’s
- happening in America could be a financial system change? Brad Jones There’s a lot of imponderables in that question, I think. We don’t spend a lot of time
- trying to second-guess what a particular administration is going to do. In part because what matters
- is not just what any particular government in any part of the world is going to announce, but what
- the second and third order responses were going to be. So, for instance, one country might decide to
- impose tariffs. What really matters for the global financial system then is how do other countries
- respond to that. So, the second, third order effects are very difficult to trace through. So, we
- don’t waste too much time on that. I mean, we’re alert to it. We’re obviously
- following events closely. We speak to our international counterparts very frequently, but we’re
- not second-guessing. Moderator Okay. So let’s come to the superannuation. Obviously, the central bank is not a corporate or a
- prudential regulator. You have made some public comments, picked up very strongly by the financial
- press and, of course, noted by the people in this room, around super more recently. Perhaps it would
- be worthwhile to just clarify the extent to which the bank is monitoring super, or what you see as
- your role, really, as it pertains to super? Brad Jones The industry, as has been noted in the earlier panels, it’s grown tremendously, and it’s at
- 150% of GDP. It would really be, the way we think about it, a dereliction of our duty to not be
- engaging with the industry. So, in the last couple of years, in particular, we’ve stepped that
- up. There’s been a bilateral element to that. A number of bank executives have engaged with a
- number of folks in this room, and there is also the ASFA that’s reached out to us and is now
- helping to establish, at different levels of our organisation, frequent touch-points. So that
- engagement is building. The way that we’re thinking about super and the way that we’ve written about it
- recently is to really make two key points. The first point is that there are important structural
- features of our industry which distinguish it from some of those internationally. Conceptually, that
- should mean that this industry is very well placed to act as a counter-cyclical stabilising force in our
- financial system: long investment horizons; the fact that member returns are not guaranteed; the lack of leverage; the
- lack of run risk. That’s the conceptual sort of underpinnings for that assessment. But because of the growth in the industry, in particular over the last 15 years, it
- would be imprudent to just assume that will always be the case. So we’ve commenced a program of work
- -- and we’re working closely with our fellow regulators here -- to think through different scenarios
- where you could potentially have a multitude of shocks come together and trace through what would this
- mean for the system at large. If I can give you one tangible data point around how things have changed, at the time of
- the global financial crisis, super funds collectively owned about 5% of short-term bank debt in the
- country. Today, that figure stands at somewhere between 35 and 45%. So I think this room is quite
- justified in pointing to the counter-cyclical role played in the GFC, right, that’s empirical fact. But again, it would be imprudent for us just to assume that things will play out in the
- next shock, whenever it may occur, in precisely the same way, because there have been key changes in the
- industry and there’s a larger degree of interconnectedness in the system because of the growth in
- the industry. That means that the systemic implications could be larger than they were certainly
- 10 or 15 years ago. So, that’s what’s sitting behind some of the analytical work
- we’re now doing. A lot of our analytical work, I should say, is very focused on the role of a systemic
- liquidity shock. That was so generated from outside the system where super funds inadvertently became a
- propagator of that stress. I think David used that terminology earlier. That resonates with us, because
- the framework that we’re bringing to bear here is not that super will be the originator of a shock
- to the financial system, but rather, there’s a shock imposed on the financial system. How could --
- think through -- how could funds inadvertently propagate stress through the system? And that could be
- through a combination of you have some large market shock, which undermines confidence writ large. You
- also have a change in policy settings, unexpected change in policy settings, which means the system is no
- longer closed in the way that it has been for almost its entire existence. And then maybe there’s
- some big cyber attack. So you have multiple shocks coming together. How would that trace through, given
- that the interconnectedness in the system is much higher than it was 15 years ago during the global
- financial crisis? So that’s where some of our analytical work is focused. Moderator You mentioned some of the plausible scenarios there, cyber risk, for example. Is one of those that
- you are looking at, scenario modelling, around the growing preponderance of private credit assets?
- This is one that the IMF and others have pointed to. Perhaps there’s some bubble-like activity
- starting to emerge. Is that one of the scenarios that superannuation maybe a propagator of, or
- perhaps pension funds more globally? Brad Jones We have long focused -- had a program of monitoring non-bank lending behaviour in Australia. Non-bank
- lenders in Australia account for about 10% of business lending and about 5% of mortgage lending. That
- share has ebbed and flowed a bit. In the business side it’s certainly increased a few percentage
- points. It’s not yet of a scale -- in the numbers that we have, it’s not yet on a scale
- that would suggest to us that there’s systemic implications. What is happening instead is that our colleagues at ASIC and APRA are very focused on
- issues like transparency and valuation of assets and investor protection. That’s where the
- regulatory focus has been, I think quite rightly, up to now. Now, if this space continues to grow, you
- can bet your bottom dollar we will be running the rule over it. Right now, the way that the regulators
- are thinking about this is this is principally an investor protection issue. But if it continues to grow,
- the interconnections between that part of the financial system and other parts of the financial system
- continue to grow, then we will be leaning in. Moderator And worth noting, of course, that some funds are, indeed, direct lenders in these arrangements in
- increasing cases. The other one that has received quite a lot of attention from the RBA’s
- comments is around bank ownership or, indeed, the role of super as a funder of or provider of
- services to the banking system. We’ve heard a little bit of that through this morning’s
- commentary. Is there anything you’d want to say about clarifying any areas of concern you have
- there, or the extent to which the RBA is looking at this? Brad Jones Only really to repeat that this point around growing interconnectedness in the system between the
- super funds and the banks. We’ve seen it play out most evidently in a super fund holdings of
- bank debt, where we think those holdings are largely being used in the liquidity pools of super
- funds. So, I know APRA are looking closely at this. In our discussions with folks in the industry,
- it’s making sure that people really understand the liquidity properties of those securities. We
- saw, for instance, at the start of the pandemic there was a big increase in sales of bank debt
- securities being put, basically, back to the banks. We hadn’t really observed that before.
- That’s the sort of -- when I talk about interconnectedness and how stress could propagate, given
- that bank bills, the BBSW rate is a key benchmark on which a lot of other assets are priced in
- Australia. It’s a key reference rate. They’re the sort of interconnections that have our
- attention and that we’re doing work on. It’s more through that wholesale funding market
- lens than others. Moderator So, less around the equity ownership, for example -- Brad Jones Yes. Moderator -- which seems to have captured the conversation a little. Another one raised in that body of work
- that the bank did was around herding and benchmarking in the behaviour of funds in their investment
- markets. Now, to advocate, I suppose, for the funds in the room, some of that, largely, of course, is
- the result of financial regulation, and specifically the Your Future, Your Super regime introduced by
- the previous government which, arguably, encourages some of that herding behaviour. Putting that to
- one side, why is the herding behaviour potentially problematic? Brad Jones Well, everyone standing on the same side of the boat is not great. To be a bit flippant about it, I
- don’t want to get into a commentary on the role of -- on the validity of those benchmarks or
- not. I know that they’re periodically reviewed. But synchronised shocks, synchronised behaviour
- -- and it doesn’t matter what part of the investor ecosystem that behaviour is coming from -- if
- everyone’s trying to act in a similar way at the same time, that’s generally when you get
- market discontinuities. Moderator Yes, and perhaps not as periodically as some in the room would like. But I guess beyond super, this
- concept of herding is obviously a major trend influence in financial markets globally over the last
- few years. If you look at the rise of passive investment which, on the one hand, has arguably moved
- money from Wall Street to Main Street, to some extent, but also there’s, perhaps, more herding
- activity going on. At a financial system level, separate to what super funds might be doing, is that
- something that central banks are really looking at; the rise of ETFs and the fact that there’s
- less price discovery, for example? Brad Jones I would say that, internationally, central banks are always thinking about how could we get really
- disruptive events in our financial system? I think that’s really the concept that animates a lot
- of research. The issue that you’re speaking to is one of the items on a long list of things that
- central banks worry about. I wouldn’t say it’s at the top of the list. Moderator We specifically in the last session, Brad, had a diversity of funds in terms of their size, some of
- the largest megafunds in the system, and also the number of the smaller funds that remain. Does the
- RBA have a view at all about concentration of retirement savings among a small number of sort of an
- oligopoly style model, as we have with retail banking, versus a diversity of players from a financial
- system and health point of view? Does that dynamic matter? Brad Jones Just for the avoidance of doubt, we don’t sit around at the bank pontificating about what the
- right number of super funds should be. That’s not what we do. At a conceptual level, the
- challenge here is how do we develop or operate a system? How does a system operate where you get the
- benefits that can accrue from having high levels of sophistication rigor, at the same time not have
- two or three or four institutions completely dominate. Now, to provide the appropriate perspective, the levels of concentration in the super
- fund industry are far lower than in other parts of the financial system and other parts of the Australian
- economy. If you look at the big banks, for instance, their share of credit is somewhere between
- 70 and 75 percent. I think the big four super funds by assets maybe represent something in the
- order of 25 percent. So, to the extent there is industry concentration, it’s not as pronounced, I would
- assert, in this industry compared to other parts of the financial system and other sectors of the economy
- more generally. Moderator Another area where certainly the exposure is less pronounced, at least in the Australian system, is
- the exposure of super funds to digital assets and crypto assets is relatively tiny. In fact, I think
- there’s only one fund in the room who has at least a public disclosure to that asset class. But
- I know that the RBA has had a bit to say about this in different realms. Governor Michelle Bullock
- has been, let’s say, relatively skeptical, I think it fair to say, about the idea of
- cryptocurrency, as both a currency and as a potential asset class. That’s how I would have read
- her comments. But I know you’ve been doing some work, both inside the RBA and with some other
- global organisations, on this growth of digital assets, which we’re now seeing very much back in the
- mainstream conversation through the US election, and so on. Can you give us a sense to which the bank, or yourself personally, are watching
- this, and the extent to which investors in the room should be really watching closely what’s
- happening in this emerging space? Brad Jones The future of money is one of the five strategic priorities for the bank. So, this is absolutely an
- area that we’re very focused on. What I can say clearly here is that we do not see a compelling
- use case for unbacked crypto. We do make a big distinction between unbacked crypto and the potential
- for digital assets, tokenised assets, to quite profoundly transform the nature of our financial
- markets. As an adjunct to that, we’re thinking very hard about what forms of money, new forms of
- money, digital money, might be needed to act as the settlement agent in these transactions in digital
- assets. That is why we’re interested in central bank digital currencies, essentially. Now, to be clear, we’ve yet to -- we at the bank and the payment system board --
- have yet to see a compelling public policy case emerge in favour of a retail central bank digital
- currency. The benefits aren’t obvious to us. We can certainly see scope for massive disruption in
- the financial sector, potentially. So, we haven’t seen the risk reward trade-off from a public
- policy perspective in the case of retail, CBDC, emerge yet. I would say most central banks are coming to
- that view. There’s a couple that are still moving in that direction, but they’re in a minority
- at the moment. Where most of the interest internationally, and certainly at the RBA, is in this space is
- thinking about the role that a wholesale central bank digital currency could play in acting as the
- settlement agent for transactions in digital assets and tokenised assets. That’s really where most
- of our attention is. Moderator What problem does that solve, potentially? Brad Jones Yes. So you can think about the evolution of financial markets since World War II as having had --
- have been a couple of epochs. One was the paper-based system, the next was electronification. And the
- third, potentially, is this era of tokenisation. The reason that central banks are looking at this,
- and industry is looking at this, is there’s a few potential benefits. Now, all of these come
- with some hair over them. So, there’s no settled view internationally or at the bank that this
- will happen or that this is inevitable at all. But the types of benefits, potentially, that could accrue from, say, atomic settlement,
- which is where you have the digital asset and the former digital money on the same exchange, basically
- exchanging instantaneously, is the rule of T+2 collapses to T+0. So you remove counterparty risk.
- You remove the issue of having to tie up your collateral for 48 hours waiting for your transaction
- to settle. Tokens also hold out the promise of being able to be updated from an information
- perspective in real time. For instance, one of the use cases for the issuance of, say, green bonds is
- that the token could be getting live feeds on clean energy production, and coupon payments could be made
- on the basis of that real-time information coming in. So collateral, freeing up collateral, reducing
- counterparty risk. Also cutting through layers of intermediary costs, because you’ll basically be
- cutting the middleman out of transactions. So, there’s some transactions, for instance, in the
- securitisation market that involve 12 intermediaries. Everyone’s taking their cut along the
- way. So, tokenisation could potentially cut through some of those layers. Then there’s the argument that it could help facilitate 24/7 trading on DLT, for instance, and the fractionalisation of assets;
- chopping assets into smaller pieces could help improve liquidity. They’re all the arguments for why
- you might want to look at this and do some work in this area. They’re some of the reasons why we
- are, but I should underscore that there are some issues with digital assets, so we’re taking a
- pretty sober perspective as we’re running the ruler over this. Moderator Yes. Those are self-evident, right? We’ve seen many, many investors around the world, tens of
- thousands of them in Australia alone, lose money in the collapse of FTX, and certainly there’s
- issues around the regulation, or lack thereof. Nonetheless, it sounds as though you, the bank,
- believes, and perhaps other global peers, that there is some utility in the blockchain itself? Brad Jones Yes. The underlying technology is interesting to us. I think certainly much more so than the unbacked
- crypto space, which is the piece that gets a lot of the media attention. Moderator Okay. We’re going to open to questions from the floor now, so please be forthcoming. And also,
- if you wish to share any lived experience of conversations your boards have had around these issues,
- please feel free. A question or a comment from Table 2. If we could get him a microphone, and
- please give your name and organisation. Just press the button. Questioner Name redacted . Brad, thanks, indeed. A really wonderful presentation. On this issue of
- super funds holding 40% of short-term bank securities, and the difficulty this might lead to in a
- liquidity crisis, or let’s say a circumstance where members wanted cash, or given the
- opportunity to take their assets as cash, as they were during the GFC, to a limited extent, can this
- not be regarded, actually, as quite a good facility? That is, in a liquidity crisis, if super funds
- are compelled to redeem bank securities, this becomes, basically, passing on a liquidity issue to
- banks, and behind the banks is the RBA. In other words, it’s a mechanism for transferring
- liquidity crisis solution back to the RBA, which is where it should be. That is, it’s not an
- insolvency crisis, it’s just a liquidity crisis -- it’s what central banks are good at
- dealing with -- and you have a mechanism there to engage you in it more properly than you might
- otherwise? Brad Jones I think it would be very difficult for any central bank to advocate for investors taking risks in a
- way that would mean that if there’s a big shock, the central bank will be there to bail them
- out. I think what we would prefer, and certainly what APRA would prefer, is that institutions are
- building their liquidity risk management capabilities in a very deliberative and careful way, so that
- they can accommodate a range of potential shocks that also take into account the possibility that
- some of their peers might act in a similar way. So, prevention rather than cure is where we would
- advocate attention being focused. It’s also the thing that you can control as an industry. So, not putting yourself in
- a position where you have to rely on the presumption that someone else will bail you out of your
- position, would be our advice there. And to be fair, since the pandemic, we have observed the super fund
- industry making -- certainly parts of the industry -- making efforts to increase the sophistication of
- their liquidity risk management practices. APRA has also acknowledged that, at the same time acknowledged
- that that progress has been very uneven, and that we’d like to both raise the average level of
- sophistication and robustness around liquidity management and shrink the gap between the best and worst
- experience, because I think one thing that we’ve picked up from our liaison is that there’s
- some institutions are now doing this very well, and there’s others where maybe their practices are
- still a fair way short of where they should be from a prudence perspective. So, prevention trumps cure. Moderator Certainly an important message there. We’ve got another question from Table 2 and then a
- few more around the room. Questioner Hi, Brad. name redacted . A really interesting piece of work was done by the BIS about
- three months ago where they tried to grasp trading relative to geopolitical risk. You may have seen
- the work. I asked your Deputy Governor about it at the IMF meetings we had and subsequently used in
- the presentation in November to discuss it. The bank seemed pretty careful about it, but Australia
- really is an extreme outlier; ie, on that measure of the BIS, we have very high exposure to
- geopolitical risk relative to our trading position. The bank itself also has a very low level of FX
- reserves, you know, one times inputs. It always has done it that way. We obviously have to manage our FX volatility. It’s a very important part of the way
- the industry works, particularly as the industry gets bigger and invests more offshore, holds unlisteds.
- You didn’t mention FX. How are you thinking about that? Brad Jones Yes. Great question. It’s featured in some of our research publicly, and it’s also an
- active area of work for us. Again, a part of that really reflects that the size of the super fund FX
- hedging book stands at about 400 billion in the swap market. The FX market is a core market for
- central bank operations, which is another reason why we’re doing work in this area, and
- we’ve spoken with a number of super funds about their FX hedging practices; how are you
- managing. The margin core risk that comes with FX hedging, because of the growth in offshore assets
- and the fact that around 40%-ish of those asset holdings are currently hedged, those trends are
- likely to continue to mean that the activity from this community in the FX swap market is going to
- grow. So, we’re looking at it, actually, through a couple of perspectives. One is the potential
- for very large moves in foreign exchange markets to accompany these other market stress events and
- accelerate or perpetuate the call on liquidity in a stress event. So, that’s one angle. Then
- there’s also the other element of just outside of stress events, the fact that this community
- here will become, almost certainly, a larger and larger player in the FX swap market. What
- implications does that have for market functioning and fundamental supply and demand imbalances in
- the normal course of events? Right now, our assessment is that flows through the swap market are fairly well balanced
- between what this community is doing and what other parts of the financial system are doing. That may not
- necessarily be the case in perpetuity, and so that’s another area where we are doing a lot of work
- in this space. Moderator It’s worth noting as well that names redacted spent quite a bit of time in the
- report in front of you dealing with this issue of FX risk. There is a question from Questioner now on
- Table 6. Questioner Brad, just to add to that discussion on FX, one thing we found really interesting is in that downward
- market environment, with funds allocating more offshore so they run a hedge book for currency, if
- there is a market shock and the Australian dollar falls with markets, funds actually find themselves
- overhedged, so they’re actually selling AUD into a market where AUD is falling. And we have
- estimated that that could add 5% to flows in a difficult market environment, and it’s
- interesting. Is that a number that sort of raises your eyebrows, or it’s nothing too significant
- to worry about? It’s quite interesting. Brad Jones I haven’t seen those numbers, so I’d have to pull them apart to be able to respond to that.
- But what I can say is there’s two ways to think about this issue. One is the initial magnitude
- of a decline which brings the margin call piece into play, but then there’s the length of the
- decline. What we know from speaking to super funds is, particularly in recent years we’ve seen
- greater use of, say, laddering in the hedging strategies. So, not the entire hedge book is rolling
- every month; it’s being staggered. So that, in theory, offers some protection or some sort of
- mitigation against the most extreme effects of margin calls. But the longer that decline is sustained, obviously the larger the decline, the longer
- it’s sustained for, the larger the cash flow implications. Moderator You mentioned right at the outset there are some ways in which our pension system markedly differs
- from others. One of those, of course, is the sort of default compulsory nature of contributions. Some
- critics would say that that has led to a complacency, or perhaps an under-estimation of the need to
- have liquidity on hand. And we saw a little of this, right, during the pandemic with the early
- release scheme, albeit relatively a small amount of funds actually withdrawn then. We are now heading into an election cycle where there are, potentially, more use cases
- for withdrawal in Australia for the purposes of purchasing homes, and so on. So, as this conversation
- increases, do you think the super industry should be more prepared for people to be switching, for people
- to be withdrawing their funds? Brad Jones Certainly our colleagues at APRA are engaging very closely with the industry, as I said, to make sure
- that across the industry that there’s less unevenness. There’s a high average level of
- capability here on liquidity risk management, and it’s more even. The pandemic was, I think, a big shot across the bow. The early release scheme I think
- caught a number of institutions off guard, and in a number of conversations we’ve had with the
- industry, the sense we’ve got is it could have been worse. The withdrawals -- there were certainly
- states of the world where the withdrawals could have been larger than what they actually were. And if
- those worst case scenarios had played out, the events could have been a bit more problematic for super
- funds. There’s been, I think, a lot of learning and reflection on that period and an increase in
- capability. And you see that now in the types of people who run higher into running liquidity risk
- management operations at super funds which we think, all else equal, is a good thing. So, there’s
- definitely been an uplift. It’s on the radar not just of the investment teams, but boards, which we
- think is great. But there’s a maturation that needs to happen there. Alex Well, certainly I think I speak for the room when I say the industry would welcome engagement with
- the Reserve Bank, and we certainly do at this forum. So we hope that it be a long-term thing.